The Twin Cities Real Estate Market in 2026: What's Actually Happening

Let’s look at what the Twin Cities market is actually doing right now, and how that compares with previous years. I track a lot of data, but there are a few numbers that do most of the heavy lifting for me. I’m going to walk through them one at a time, because each one tells a different part of the story.

** Data is from the 16-County MSP area: Anoka, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Isanti, Le Sueur, Mille Lacs, Ramsey, Scott, Sherburne, Sibley, Washington and Wright Counties in Minnesota and Pierce and St. Croix Counties in Wisconsin.

Year over year: Up from 22 a year ago.

Translation: Two extra days doesn't sound like much. But it's part of a steady drift — homes are taking longer to sell every quarter.

The 10-year context here is actually reassuring:

Today's 24 days looks almost exactly like 2018. That's a return to normal — not a freeze, not a crash, not a sign that homes aren't selling. It just means buyers could have time to think again, and sellers can't always count on a weekend feeding frenzy.

Year over year: Up from 2.4 a year ago.

Translation: Months supply tells you how long it would take to sell every home currently listed at the current pace of buying. We're at 2.6 — the highest spring number we've seen since 2019.

Anything under 4-5 months is still considered a seller's market. We're firmly there. But there's more breathing room than there has been in years.

The 10-year arc:

We are in a more balanced version of a seller's market than we've seen in half a decade.

Here’s what I see in the field

The "softening" is real on average. But averages hide the actual texture of the market. What I'm seeing on the ground:

Frenzies still happen — they're just selective. I'm still walking sellers through multiple-offer situations. But where we used to see them everywhere, now they cluster around specific conditions: the right price point, right showing condition, the right neighborhood, the right time of year, and a home that hits the market in good shape. Inventory is so low in some pockets that when something good shows up, it still moves like it's 2022.

Financing is reshaping decisions at every price point. With interest rates climbing, I'm watching buyers get priced out of homes they were qualified for six months ago. Some are pausing. Some are pivoting to smaller homes or different neighborhoods. The math has changed, and people are recalculating.

So when I say "softening," I mean: less chaos on average, but pockets of frenzy still very much alive — and a market behaving very differently depending on price point, location, and season.

So when's the right time to make a move?

This feels like right time for a little wisdom from the ages. You know that saying? The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second-best time is today. Real estate works the same way. Over a long enough horizon, the line goes up. The 10-year arc is the proof.

If you're a seller, this is still a strong market. Your house probably will sell when it’s positioned properly. It may even still attract multiple offers if you're in the right price point, neighborhood, and season, and your home is dialed in. But you can no longer count on the market to do the work for you. Pricing right matters. Presentation matters again. There are real strategies to maximize your net even in a softer market.

If you're a buyer, the news is gentler than you think, if you're prepared. You may actually have time to look at a house twice. You may be able to ask for closing cost credits. But if rates have shifted what you can afford, that's a real conversation to have early. Knowing your range in today's rate environment is the most important homework you can do, and "I'll wait for rates to drop" can be expensive, because while you wait, prices are still creeping up.

If you're holding tight and watching, that's fair too. But know that "waiting for prices to drop" is a strategy that requires prices to actually drop — and right now they're still climbing, just slowly.

One last stat —  Let's talk about closed sales.

Spring 2021: 65,948 homes sold over the prior twelve months. Spring 2026: 45,575.

That's roughly 20,000 fewer transactions per year. People simply stopped selling, locked in by 3% mortgage rates, unsure of what to buy next, watching and waiting like the rest of us.

Which is to say: I officially re-entered the Twin Cities sales market right around the time everyone collectively decided to stop selling their homes.

I guess I like a good challenge. 😉

The people moving in this market are the ones who need to or really want to. Relocations, life transitions, growing families, downsizing, folks quietly stepping into the home they were always meant to have.

If you've been frozen by 2022's market, by today's headlines, or by interest rates that keep moving the goalposts, let's talk.

The real story is usually more nuanced — and more workable — than people think.

If you didn’t know, Perfect Match Properties is the real-estate arm behind The Minneapolis Edit—and one of the Twin Cities’ most trusted boutique teams.

Whether you’re dreaming about your next neighborhood, wondering what your current home might be worth, or just exploring what’s possible, we’d love to earn your business.